Monday, November 17, 2008

Smart Daily Currency Note - 17th November 2008

Smart Currency Exchange - Daily Currency Rates for Business Users
Free Daily Inter Bank Currency Exchange Rates 17th November 2008

Currency

Rate

EURO

1.178

US$

1.494

CHF

1.780

CAN$

1.834

AUS$

2.289

JPY

144.43

HKD

11.569

Comments: Sterling is in the pits. The constant stream of increasingly negative data over the last year as well as the gloomy outlooks on the year ahead have left a sad picture of the UK economy. The recent flurry of well publicised job cuts and the ever growing sense of an impending recession (that may or may not have 'technically' started already) has new, unwanted benchmarks being set by sterling daily. The hope that monetary policy will be of any help against the current woes in the short term and this within a financial system already proven to be flawed is perhaps over optimistic. So don't expect any upside for sterling in the short term. Further downside seems more likely.

The €'s price against sterling, currently 1.178/£1, is flattered by the total decimation of the pound. Against the US$ however, the euro has itself lost an awful lot of ground in the past six months. The fact that last week Germany officially fell into recession was countered by news that the French economy has bucked the current trend and actually grown fractionally in the last quarter has kept the single currency treading water. Interest rates in the eurozone may well be lowered over the coming months but the sharing of the burden amongst the Europeans has arguably helped some individual nations from the perils now affecting the UK economy.

The US$, currently at 1.494/£1, and its movement against sterling over the past months has been relentless. The wave of optimism brought about from the promise of President Elect Obama leading the nation away from the current crisis and an end or at least a relenting of worldwide unpopularity has filtered quickly through to the markets. The continuation of risk averse investors returning to the US$ as a safe-haven asset and the notion that the US may be 'over the worst' of the credit crisis has certainly helped. How accurate this notion is however will be tested over the next few months.

The commodity backed and high yielding currencies continue to loss credibility as commodity prices fall and yields are cut but the problem is that sterling has lost even greater credibility.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.




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